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Posted in economy, Ohio, politics
Tagged Election 2012, Govenor John Kasich, Mitt Romney, Republican Convention
The Buckeye Institute’s July 2012 Ohio by the Numbers report shows continuing positive signs for Ohio’s private economy. According to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Ohio’s private sector gained 16,300 jobs, allowing the state to move up another notch, having the 13th fastest growing private sector since January 2010. It was 20th in January’s report. Ohio did lose 5,300 government jobs.
While 2012 continues to show Ohio’s private sector making gains and pushing the state’s unemployment rate below the national average, 7.2 percent vs. 8.3 percent, there are some troubling trends. Chief among them is that the labor force shrunk by 24,000 in July. In fact, though labor force participation increased by nearly 23,000 from January to May, it has declined by over 41,000 over the course of two consecutive months which leaves Ohio’s labor force 19,000 smaller than in January.
Meanwhile, a full recovery of Ohio’s private sector economy to its peak private sector employment numbers of March, 2000 is getting closer. Using the “boom” growth rates from the 1990s (nearly 95,000 per year on average), it will take until February of 2017 for Ohio to return to its previous private sector employment peak of 4.85 million last seen in March of 2000. However, that is an improvement over last month when the recovery date was projected to be March, 2017.
Overall highlights from the Buckeye Institute report include:
Within individual industry sectors, only Professional and Business Services and Education and Health Services continue to have more people employed in them today than in either 1990 or 2000.
The report shows that Forced Union states (which includes Ohio and most of its neighbors with the recent exception of Indiana which became a worker freedom state in February) had a private sector growth rate far below Worker Freedom states. Since 1990, Worker Freedom states’ private sector jobs grew at a 36 percent rate vs. only 13 percent for Forced Union states (12.3 million vs. 7.8 million).
EEven during the decade from 2000-2010, which included the tech bubble burst of 2000 and the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, Worker Freedom states gained jobs for a minimal growth of around 0.1 percent while Forced Union states lost 5 percent. Since 2010, Worker Freedom states also outperformed Forced Union states, growing at a 4.4 percent rate vs. only 3.7 percent.
Even during the decade from 2000-2010, which included the tech bubble burst of 2000 and the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, Worker Freedom states gained jobs for a minimal growth of around 0.1 percent while Forced Union states lost 5 percent. Since 2010, Worker Freedom states also outperformed Forced Union states, growing at a 4.4 percent rate vs. only 3.7 percent.
by Daniel Downs
A recent article by Charles Gave of GaveKal reports Germany entering a recession. His initial analysis points to a mild recession for Germany. However, the impact of a stagnant recessionary German economy would result in a secondary depression on the southern nations of Europe. For Germany and the EU, the repercussion of such a depression could result in a much more severe recession for strongest EU economy. If that happens, Gave predicts the EU would break apart.
Of course, a German recession would have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, according to the Fiscal Times. Because exports to Germany and other European nations would diminish, our economic would also slow down possibly to greater recessionary levels.
The latest update to U.S. Budget and Economic Outlook projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a recession in 2013. While the CBO estimates the national budget deficit to decline from $1.1 trillion to $641 billion, its analysts also estimate a decline in real GDP of 0.5 percent. At the same time, they predict unemployment to rise again to 9 percent.
The CBO projections for 2014-2017 show slow but steady improvement. By the end of 2017, they predict the rate of unemployment to have decreased to 5.7 percent. While the unemployment is expected to decline, the growth rate of the national economy is expect to increase to 4.3 percent.
Of course, CBO projections are dependent on the policies made on Capitol Hill and the economic conditions of those nations who buy our goods and services and invest in our capital markets.
by Gary Palmer
For the last three years, the federal government has been in mad pursuit of green energy alternatives to redefine our economy and improve job markets. In the process, billions of taxpayer dollars were wasted on green energy companies that didn’t produce reliable alternative energy resources, economic growth or new jobs.
Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued thousands of pages of regulations that threaten existing energy producers with catastrophic fines and industry-killing regulations that smother the U.S. economy and force energy prices higher. Among these are regulations that are shutting down on coal-fired power facilities because power companies cannot afford compliance costs.
The resulting loss of 26,000 megawatts of coal-based power could power 20-26 million homes.
As the EPA continues its crusade, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission estimates that another 55,000 megawatts of coal-generated electricity will be shut down in the next six years. The loss of that much of our power grid combined with billions of dollars in new compliance costs will force American households to pay more for electricity at a time when the net worth of the average American household has declined by 40% since 2007.
Moreover, as a percentage of disposable income, energy costs hit lower-income households the hardest. In 2001, households earning below $50,000 annually were allocating 12 percent of disposable income to pay for energy. In 2011, households in that same income range spent 20 percent. Households with annual incomes between $10,000 and $30,000 spent 23 percent of their disposable income just to pay their energy bills, creating a significant burden for low-income elderly, black, and Hispanic households who are disproportionately in this income bracket.
In 2009, there were 25.3 million senior citizen households with median earnings of $31,354. Expanding access to America’s abundant reserves of oil, natural gas and coal would be of significant help to elderly Americans with fixed incomes. In many respects, it would be equivalent to an increase in Social Security benefits.
The United States has billions of barrels of recoverable oil that could jump start our economy, virtually eliminate our need to buy oil from hostile nations and reduce the cost of energy for all American households and businesses. According to the U.S. Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Land Management, there are 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming with the richest deposits located in areas owned by the federal government.
The latest estimates from the federal government indicate proven reserves of over 280 trillion cubic feet of natural gas which is enough to meet the needs of the United States for 90 years. And U.S. coal reserves that are recoverable with current mining technology are sufficient to meet our needs for 249 years. When it comes to energy resources-oil, natural gas, and coal-the U.S. is one of the wealthiest nations in the world. The royalties from the federally-owned energy reserves would be in the trillions of dollars.
In other words, we are not broke, we are stupid.
Accessing federally-owned energy reserves must be a major part of our economic recovery plan. This will provide energy security not seen in decades as well as decrease energy costs for Americans who have seen their energy costs double over the last decade.
By allowing access to these reserves, the United States could become an energy exporter to major energy consumers like China and India. Over time, royalties would be in the trillions, some of which could be used to help ensure the viability of Social Security and Medicare.
New extraction technologies for recoverable energy resources will provide the opportunity to go from dependence on foreign energy to energy independence. Accessing these rich resources will be good for our national security and our economy and for elderly and low-income families whose disposable income is being depleted by high energy costs.
Gary Palmer is president of the Alabama Policy Institute, a non-partisan, non-profit research and education organization dedicated to the preservation of free markets, limited government and strong families, which are indispensable to a prosperous society.
by Raymond J. Keating
There’s no other way to put it: The latest GDP numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis were bad.
During a recovery, real U.S. GDP growth should be moving along at 4.0%-4.5%, on average. But during the second quarter, real GDP advanced by a mere 1.5%. That followed on 2.0% growth during the first quarter.
And for the past three years, from the time this so-called recovery started, real GDP growth has averaged a mere 2.2% – half of where we should be.
By the way, it needs to be pointed out that business investment is slowing. As noted in the GDP data, gross private domestic fixed investment continued a three-quarter slowdown – from 15.5% in the third quarter 2011 to 10% in the fourth, 9.8% in the first quarter 2012 and 6.1% in the second quarter. This is important to watch since consumers – indeed, the rest of the economy – take their cue from business investment. After all, if business is expanding, consumers gain in confidence, especially given the effects on the job market.
Two key problems exist with our persistently bad economic growth numbers.
The first is the loss in production, income, and jobs. Slow economic growth, quite simply, means a loss in our standard of living.
Second, the U.S. has to make sure that it does not fall into the trap of diminished expectations. After GDP numbers were released on July 27, a talking head on television said the U.S. economy was “resilient.” Really?
Continually poor GDP numbers for four-and-a-half years can have an effect on people’s psyches. They can start thinking that poor economic growth is the new normal. That is, they can succumb to diminished expectations. Suddenly, 2.0% economic isn’t so bad.
Make no mistake, the U.S. should not accept poor economic growth as some kind of new normal. Instead, if we make serious pro-growth policy changes, no reason exists why the U.S. cannot get back on a path of robust growth.
The necessary policy agenda to spur entrepreneurship, investment, growth and job creation forward is no mystery.
Provide broad-based, substantial, permanent tax relief. Similarly, roll back egregious, costly, anti-growth regulations, and establish a regulatory system whereby Congress must approve all new rules and regulations. Rein in the size and scope of government spending in order to leave resources for far more productive uses in the private sector, now and in the future. Lead the world in reducing trade barriers in order to expand opportunity. And get the Federal Reserve refocused on the only job it’s meant to do, i.e., maintaining price stability.
Get the policy mix right, and the U.S. will get back on a track of strong economic growth and job creation.
Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. His new book is “Chuck” vs. the Business World: Business Tips on TV.
The June 2012 Ohio by the Numbers report shows continuing positive signs for Ohio’s private economy. Ohio moved up a full four spots to become the 14th fastest growing state since January 2010. It was 18th in May’s report.
While a full recovery of Ohio’s private sector economy to its peak employment numbers of March, 2000 remains in the distance, that distance shrank by three months. Using the “boom” growth rates from the 1990s (nearly 95,000 per year on average), it will take until March of 2017 for Ohio to return to its previous private sector employment peak of 4.85 million last seen in March of 2000. However, that is an improvement over last month when the recovery date was projected to be June, 2017.
Overall highlights from the report:
Within individual industry sectors, only Professional and Business Services and Education and Health Services continue to have more people employed in them today than in either 1990 or 2000. However, Leisure and Hospitality is less than 3,000 jobs away from joining those two sectors.
The report shows that Forced Union states (which includes Ohio and most of its neighbors with the recent exception of Indiana which became a worker freedom state in February) had a private sector growth rate far below Worker Freedom states. Since 1990, Worker Freedom states’ private sector jobs grew at a 36 percent rate vs. only 13 percent for Forced Union states.
Even during the decade from 2000-2010, which included the tech bubble burst of 2000 and the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, Worker Freedom states gained jobs for a minimal growth of around 0.1 percent while Forced Union states lost 5 percent. Since 2010, Worker Freedom states also outperformed Forced Union states, growing at a 4.4 percent rate vs. only 3.7 percent.
(Washington, D.C.) – The tax returns of Americans with the largest incomes demonstrate some fascinating trends, including the fleeting nature of being among the nation’s highest earners and the steadily increasing portion of income taxes being paid by those at the top. The most recent data also show that tax revenue collected from those reporting the highest incomes increased during the same period of time when marginal tax rates fell, according to a new analysis by the Tax Foundation.
“The Fortunate 400 pay a lot of income tax—about enough to fund the Department of Interior, which includes the National Park Service and the National Science Foundation,” said Tax Foundation economist Will McBride.
For several years, the Internal Revenue Service has issued annual data on the top 400 tax returns by adjusted gross income – the so-called “Fortunate 400.” The most recent release shows that for that group, taxes have doubled in real terms since 1992. Likewise, the Fortunate 400’s share of income taxes paid has also doubled to 2 percent—almost the share paid by the bottom 69 million filers combined.
This year’s IRS report also demonstrates that there is a lot of income mobility at the top. Of all the filers who have made the list since 1992, 73 percent were on the list just once. In last year’s report, just 4 people had remained on the list for all 17 years. This suggests that most top earners do not have a portfolio of big investments that can be cashed in year after year, but rather one big asset, such as a family farm or business or stock, the sale of which triggers a capital gain.
While incomes reported by the Fortunate 400 have been rising, wages and salaries have remained basically flat, going from $7.5 billion in 1992 to $6.9 billion in 2009. In fact, filers with the highest incomes pay more in income taxes than they receive in wages and salaries, and have for every year since 1992. Virtually all of the growth is from “pass-through” business income and capital gains.
By Elizabeth Robinson
In a recent campaign speech, presidential candidate Mitt Romney criticized President Obama for pushing his agenda on healthcare when the economy is in such dire straits. “The President’s responsibility is to put people back to work, and to get people out of poverty, and to help people have good jobs and have prospects for a brighter tomorrow,” said Romney. Even President Obama has said that it is his task to create jobs and stimulate the economy.
And it seems most average Americans believe this rhetoric; after all, somebody should do something to get us out of this mess. Certainly, there are people in our nation and our state who truly need help. But is it really the job of the president or other politicians to create jobs?
Frequently those wishing to exert political control over the economy use moral arguments to win support by helping the less fortunate through government programs, having the rich pay their fair share or acting on behalf of the common good. But the fruits of the government’s actions for the “common welfare” have potentially devastating results.
Government intervention, even for the purported sake of the common good, completely ignores the idea of personal responsibility and the fact that every bailout, stimulus, and over-broad regulation has led us to where we are now: continued high unemployment, little investor confidence, and nearly $16 trillion in debt.
Government job creation in the private sector is a convenient political myth supported by Republicans and Democrats alike. The only job that the government may directly create will be a job funded by the public. And there are a finite number of employees needed to execute the legitimate functions of government. When the economy is struggling, directly engaging in government “job creation” creates an even greater economic drag by burdening the taxpayer with higher debt or more taxes.
Renowned twentieth century Austrian economist and Nobel Laureate Friedrich Hayek asserts in his 1944 book, Road to Serfdom, that it is the government’s responsibility to create an atmosphere in which competition will thrive. The government does not create jobs. In fact, the government often does an exceptional job of inhibiting private sector growth.
Some politicians may argue that “job creation” means they bring business to the state or country or that they create favorable conditions for businesses to operate. If so, the rhetoric is misleading at best. Businesses locate where they receive the most significant economic advantage, and creating positive conditions is a far cry from directly putting someone on a private payroll.
No person or group of people has enough information to make the decisions which would enable them to truly improve the economy through planning and control. As such, planned economic programs will only remove economic liberty and enforce the ideals of the political elites on the lifestyle and employment that is best for all. Instead, the president and anyone aspiring to political office should remember that individuals make economic decision; individuals are able to most effectively make decisions that impact them and their families; and ultimately, enterprising individuals generate wealth and create new jobs.
Elizabeth Robinson is a policy analyst and the grant coordinator for the Alabama Policy Institute, a non-partisan, non-profit research and education organization dedicated to the preservation of free markets, limited government and strong families, which are indispensable to a prosperous society.
By David E. Smith
As you know by now, in a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled yesterday to uphold the core provisions of President Barack Obama’s Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPAC). By their decision, we now face an egregious threat to American liberty.
This federal legislation contains a highly controversial and unpopular Individual Mandate, which, if not repealed, will force Americans to “buy” federally approved or sponsored healthcare plans or pay a penalty for non-compliance. Contrary to their promises to Congress as well as to the general public, proponents of the PPAC have succeeded in arguing to the Supreme Court that the Individual Mandate will function as a federal tax. We are very concerned that this will set a dangerous precedent for federal mandates.
We believe this law is a threat to personal liberty, religious freedom and family choices. It gives government bureaucrats alarming power over individual citizen’s healthcare decisions and will lead to future conflicts of conscience. Americans will be forced to choose either to comply and abandon their religious beliefs or resist and be fined for exercising their deeply held beliefs.
The PPAC includes provisions for abortion-inducing drugs, contraception and sterilizations, and tax dollars will subsidize many types of abortions. By advancing taxpayer funding of abortion, the PPAC is an attack on religious freedom and individual liberty.
We urge our national lawmakers to repeal the PPAC, and rather than rushing through an expansive overhaul, Congress needs to take a reasonable approach to reforming what’s wrong with healthcare. The federal reach into the lives of each and every American citizen is of grave concern. And the accompanying threats to freedom of conscience challenge the very concept of liberty.
We hope and pray that this monumental decision will be the catalyst to awaken and unite American voters – especially people of faith – this November. It should also serve to remind believers that we should be praying for true revival and the spread of the Gospel. As my friend Pastor James McDonald of Morton, Illinois pointed out on his Facebook page, “Do we understand that the One who orchestrates the end, orchestrates the means, and the means He uses is our faithful witness? Rise up, O Church of God!”
And here’s what others are saying:
“Today’s Supreme Court decision will do serious harm to American families. Not only is the individual mandate a profound attack on our liberties, but it is only one section among hundreds of provisions in the law that will force taxpayers to fund abortions, violate their conscience rights, and impose a massive tax and debt burden on American families.
“The Obama administration has created, for the first time in American history, new federal regulations that toss aside the constitutional right to religious freedom by forcing religious institutions and employers to pay for abortion-causing drugs, contraceptives and sterilizations.
“It’s now time to replace those leaders who disregarded the constitutional limitations of their authority and the deeply held religious beliefs of their constituents, voting for the government takeover of healthcare. We must repeal this abortion-funding health care law and restore the Constitution to its rightful place.” Tony Perkins. President of the Family Research Council
”We are outraged to see the Supreme Court ignoring the constitutional limits the Founders put in place to constrain the federal government’s power over us. Shame on them!
With this decision they have given a blank check to the federal government, forever altering the constitutional concept of checks and balances that has been so crucial throughout our history.
We wholeheartedly believe we must strive to make health care more affordable for all Americans. But it is inconceivable to believe we must infringe on our constitutional rights in order to achieve that.
Women will be especially hurt by today’s decision. As we have seen with the contraception mandate, the politicization of so-called women issues by the left leaves the majority of women extremely vulnerable to the exploitation of a few radical groups that exert much political influence in Congress and the White House. ~ Penny Nance, CEO of Concerned Women for America
“This is a stunning decision to uphold ObamaCare as a tax. Congress relied upon the Commerce Clause, not the Taxing and Spending Clause. The Court ignored the intent of Congress, which did not intend the mandate to be a tax but rather a penalty. Rulings like this on ObamaCare undermine the confidence of the people in the competency of the Supreme Court to follow the rule of law. Today’s decision damages the image of the Supreme Court and is bad for America.” Mat Staver, Founder and President of Liberty Counsel and Dean of Liberty University School of Law
“The ‘individual mandate’ was just one problem with the law. Our tax dollars are still being used to subsidize abortion and our Catholic institutions are still being forced to violate our beliefs.
“Congress must act immediately to fix the critical flaws in the health care law and begin to replace them with measured, sensible reforms. At the very least, they should not allow any tax dollars to be used to implement the law while remedies are decided. We encourage them to focus their energy on improving our nation’s health care system in a way that respects all stages of life, protects our consciences, and avoids negatively impacting the economic conditions of Americans.” ~ Matt Smith, President of Catholic Advocate
“It is astonishing that the majority of the justices did not see the bill for what it really is: a blatant violation of the personal freedoms guaranteed by our Constitution and perhaps a mortal blow to the concept of federalism… “When a government begins forcing citizens to purchase what it thinks is important or necessary, that government takes a dangerous step away from the freedom-embracing, democratic model.” ~ Richard Land, president of the Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention.
“The president’s health care law is hurting our economy by driving up health costs and making it harder for small businesses to hire. Today’s ruling underscores the urgency of repealing this harmful law in its entirety. What Americans want is a common-sense, step-by-step approach to health care reform that will protect Americans’ access to the care they need, from the doctor they choose, at a lower cost. Republicans stand ready to work with a president who will listen to the people and will not repeat the mistakes that gave our country ObamaCare.” ~ U.S. House Speaker John Boehner
“President Obama’s health care law stands as one of the largest tax increases in American history, it will be paid for by young Americans, whose dreams and plans for the future have already been derailed by failed policies that have denied their access to full-time, meaningful jobs in their chosen career paths. Young adults know they will pay the true costs of President Obama’s legislation — over a trillion dollars more in federal spending, more waste and fraud, increased American debt, and the inability to keep or choose healthcare plans that best suit their needs as individuals. Elections have consequences, and young adults will be organizing themselves far more actively than some might assume — they will not settle for leadership that ignores their concerns, limits their freedoms, and continues to bankrupt their futures.” ~Paul T. Conway, president of Generation Opportunity, Chief of Staff for the U.S. Department of Labor
”Today’s Supreme Court 5-to-4 decision upholding the individual mandate in ObamaCare was surprising. The court rejected the Obama Administration’s main argument that the individual mandate was constitutional based on the Commerce Clause. It rejected the administration’s second argument that the mandate was constitutional under the Necessary and Proper Clause.
“However, five justices, with Chief Justice John Roberts writing the majority opinion, concluded that the mandate was constitutional under Congress’ power to tax. As Roberts wrote in his opinion, “Simply put, Congress may tax and spend.”
“That’s the problem in Washington, isn’t it? There’s already way too much spending, and ObamaCare won’t help that. And it is a huge tax increase — $500 billion over the next ten years.” Gary Bauer, American Values
[The previous post extolled the Supreme Court ruling as a victory for the health care needs of poor children. It may be presumed that they believe it is a victory for their families too. This is doubtful seeing many proponents for the poor also are proponents of state rights of the child trumps parental rights. In other words, families don’t count. However, the above comments lack any mention of children, only families, the blatant violation of individual liberty, and the undermining of the principles of federalism. I wonder if we can have cherished freedoms and the American dream and government dictating by force of law how we will achieve it. The above author(s) seem to think otherwise.]
